← Store championship azure dtr
Water FractalTier 1
at Store championship azure dtr
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.6% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Leeching Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |